Every preseason, the College Football Playoff conversation revolves around the usual suspects. Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Oregon dominate the headlines, while dozens of other programs quietly build rosters capable of pulling off a surprise.

The expanded 12-team playoff has changed everything. A conference championship, an experienced quarterback and a strong transfer portal class can suddenly turn an overlooked program into a national contender. This offseason also added a new wrinkle, a coaching carousel that reshaped several contenders overnight. Three of the five teams below will line up in 2026 under a head coach who wasn't there a year ago.

Here are five teams flying under the radar that have a legitimate chance to crash the College Football Playoff in 2026.

1. SMU Mustangs

SMU is no longer just a feel-good story. The Mustangs are 14-2 in two seasons as ACC members, and head coach Rhett Lashlee has called this the highest-ceiling roster he's assembled on the Hilltop.

The reason for the optimism is quarterback Kevin Jennings, back for his third year as a starter and his final season of eligibility. Lashlee was vocal this offseason about Jennings being underrated nationally, and the dual-threat veteran returns behind an offensive line that brings back several starters, including tackle PJ Williams. The challenge is around him: Jennings lost most of his receiving corps and all three of his top tight ends to graduation and the draft.

That's why the transfer haul matters. The headline addition is running back Kendrick Raphael, who arrives from Cal after rushing for 944 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2025 — and who now faces his old team when Cal visits in late October. Lashlee also reloaded the pass-catching room with East Carolina receiver Yannick Smith and former five-star Alabama transfer Jalen Hale, while slot man Yamir Knight returns as a potential 70-catch target.

The caveat is the defense, which lost all four starting defensive linemen and six of its top eight tacklers. If newcomers like JUCO standout David Chukwuemeka and Kansas State transfer Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder hold up in the trenches, a double-digit win season and a second playoff trip are well within reach.

2. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona enters 2026 with less national buzz than some of its Big 12 rivals — but that undersells a program coming off a 9-4 season and a Holiday Bowl appearance.

The biggest reason for confidence is that quarterback Noah Fifita is back for his senior year. The program's all-time passing touchdown leader threw for 3,228 yards with 29 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 2025, and he returns with both coordinators, offensive play-caller Seth Doege and defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales, still in place. Continuity at the top is rare in this era, and Arizona has it.

Head coach Brent Brennan used the portal to restock Fifita's targets. The most intriguing addition is West Virginia receiver Rodney Gallagher III, a versatile weapon who posted 64 catches, 605 receiving yards and 221 rushing yards last season. Illinois tight end Cole Rusk, the highest-graded of all Arizona's transfers, gives Fifita a big-bodied safety blanket, and USC's DJ Jordan adds another four-star pedigree on the outside.

The question is the running game, where leading rusher Ismail Mahdi is out of eligibility.

If a returning back like Kedrick Reescano steps up and the defense holds, Arizona has the quarterback play to be one of the season's biggest surprises in an unpredictable Big 12.

3. California Golden Bears

Cal may finally be ready to take advantage of its move to the ACC but it will do so under brand-new leadership. The Golden Bears parted ways with longtime coach Justin Wilcox after nine seasons and hired former Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi to run the program.

The most important offseason development was keeping quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who started as a true freshman in 2025 and chose to stay despite the coaching change. He gives Lupoi a foundation to build around — and a head start that most first-year coaches don't get.

Cal's portal activity was a double-edged sword. The Bears were hit hard, losing 32 players, including leading rusher Kendrick Raphael (to SMU) and linebacker Luke Ferrelli, a 91-tackle producer. But they answered aggressively: their incoming transfer class ranked second in the ACC behind Miami and 14th nationally, with 30 new additions. Washington running back Adam Mohammed and a heavily rebuilt offensive line headline the reinforcements.

This is less a "deeper and ascending" team than a high-turnover roster under a defensive-minded new staff. If Lupoi's culture takes quickly and Sagapolutele builds on his freshman year, Cal has the pieces to climb a wide-open ACC behind Clemson.

4. Kansas State Wildcats

Never count out Kansas State — but understand that 2026 is a transition year, not a continuity play. Program legend Collin Klein takes over as head coach after Chris Klieman's retirement, and he inherits significant turnover: 14 starters to replace, six of whom left via the portal to other Power Four programs, and a first transfer class that drew mixed reviews.

The anchor is dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson, the most important player Klein retained. Johnson completed nearly 60 percent of his passes for 2,385 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2025, and he's joined by returning leading rusher Joe Jackson and top receiver Jaron Tibbs. That's a real offensive nucleus for a first-year staff.

Klein built his portal class around both lines of scrimmage, and the headline signing is edge rusher Wendell Gregory from Oklahoma State, who generated 32 pressures and four sacks last season. If the new pieces gel and Johnson takes another step, Kansas State has the quarterback play and the program toughness to climb back into the Big 12 race — though a coaching transition this sweeping usually takes a beat to settle.

5. Auburn Tigers

Auburn entered the offseason as one of college football's biggest wild cards, and the Tigers responded with the most aggressive reset of any team on this list. Out went Hugh Freeze; in came Alex Golesh, hired from USF to fix an offense that had stalled for years.

Golesh didn't just bring his system, he brought his quarterback. Byrum Brown followed his coach from Tampa to the Plains, and he arrives as a genuine star. In 2025, Brown led all FBS quarterbacks with 42 total touchdowns and more than 347 yards of offense per game, and he became one of just a dozen FBS players ever to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season. If Auburn clicks, he belongs in the Heisman conversation.

The roster overhaul was total, Auburn's entire 2025 quarterback room transferred out, and Golesh signed 39 transfers, importing familiar USF weapons like receiver Jeremiah Koger while retaining respected defensive coordinator DJ Durkin. The SEC is never forgiving, and a brutal nine-game conference slate awaits. But for the first time in years, Auburn has a defined offensive identity and a proven playmaker under center. A 10-2 season with a couple of signature wins would put the Tigers firmly in the playoff discussion.

The Expanded Playoff Changes Everything

One of the biggest impacts of the expanded College Football Playoff is that programs no longer need a perfect season to earn a shot at a national championship. A conference title, a signature victory and a few fortunate breaks can suddenly transform an overlooked team into a legitimate contender.

This year, the coaching carousel only widens the field. New staffs at Auburn, Cal and Kansas State, paired with veteran quarterbacks at SMU and Arizona, mean any of these five programs could be the team that scrambles the bracket. None of them begins the season ranked among the favorites — but each has the coaching, roster talent and schedule to become one of 2026's biggest surprises.

And if college football has taught us anything over the years, it's that every season produces at least one team nobody saw coming.