ACC Title Race: Miami Holds the Edge, Wake Forest Faces a Big Test at SMU
Beaten at Notre Dame on Saturday, Miami is still unbeaten in ACC play and keeps control of the title race. Behind the Hurricanes, the conference is entering a month of elimination games: Wake Forest travels to SMU, Duke visits Miami, and six teams can still aim for Charlotte. The stakes go beyond a trophy: the winner of the title game earns an automatic College Football Playoff berth, in what will be the last annual championship game in ACC history.
Miami: a loss that leaves the conference standings untouched
The 31-24 loss in South Bend to independent Notre Dame does not affect Miami's league record: 6-0 in the ACC, 8-1 overall. Above all, Mario Cristobal holds a decisive card: the 33-20 win in Winston-Salem in September gives Miami the head-to-head edge over Wake Forest. And the ACC's new tiebreaker policy, in effect this season, puts head-to-head results first.
The Hurricanes have three conference games left, all at Hard Rock Stadium: Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College. Miami can clinch its trip to Charlotte as soon as Saturday with a win over Duke, combined with a Louisville loss at North Carolina and an SMU loss to Wake Forest. All of it without star receiver Malachi Toney, who had ankle surgery and is out four to six weeks.
Wake Forest vs. SMU: the real elimination game
The game of the week is in Dallas. Wake Forest (8-1, 5-1), No. 11 in the AP poll, has won six straight since its only loss, against Miami. Quarterback Gio Lopez, who arrived from North Carolina, was rested on Saturday in a 77-0 win over Merrimack, with backup Steele Pizzella starting. Lopez has 18 touchdown passes against one interception this season, and coach Jake Dickert said Monday he will be ready for Saturday.
On the other side, SMU (7-2, 5-2) bounced back last Friday by handling Virginia Tech after losing to Syracuse with 17 seconds left. Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 355 yards and four touchdowns. The math is simple for the Mustangs: a win would give them the head-to-head edge over Wake Forest, a loss would all but knock them out of the race, especially with a trip to Notre Dame still to come. Wake Forest, for its part, already beat Louisville (5-2) in September, which protects it in a tie with the Cardinals.
Duke: the outsider that controls its own fate
The defending champion, Duke (7-2, 4-2) starts further back but has the schedule most dangerous to the leaders: Miami on Saturday, Clemson, then Wake Forest. Three wins would give the Blue Devils the head-to-head edge over both front-runners. Duke has outscored its last two opponents 88-5 and leans on Nate Sheppard, who ran for 217 yards on Saturday. Cristobal called him the best running back Miami has faced this season, "by far."
The game also has a personal edge. Duke coach Manny Diaz led Miami before being let go to make room for Cristobal. And Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, along with receiver Cooper Barkate, wore Duke colors last season. The Hurricanes are favored by about 13 points at sportsbooks. Clemson (4-2), the only contender playing just eight conference games, is lurking: the new policy was designed so that no team is rewarded or penalized for that number.
What it means
For Miami, the conference title game is only one step. Ranked No. 1 in the committee's first rankings, the Hurricanes will find out Tuesday night how much the Notre Dame loss cost them. For Wake Forest, SMU or Duke, winning the title game remains the surest path to the Playoff.
This title game will also carry historical weight. The ACC announced Monday that the 2026 edition will be the conference's last annual championship game, a consequence of the College Football Playoff's move to 24 teams starting with the 2027 season. Charlotte, host of 15 of the last 16 editions, will close the chapter in early December at Bank of America Stadium.
On the docket Saturday: Wake Forest vs. SMU, Duke vs. Miami and Louisville vs. North Carolina.
