Big Ten Title Race: UCLA Leads, but Ten Teams Still Dream of Indianapolis
With a month to go before the title game in Indianapolis, the Big Ten no longer has a clear front-runner. UCLA (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) is the conference's last unbeaten team, Indiana (8-1, 5-1) sits right behind, and Ohio State (6-2, 4-1) is still lurking despite its loss at USC. Beyond that trio, the list of contenders is longer than it looks: USC (7-2, 4-2) and six teams with two conference losses can all still, on paper, reach the championship game on Saturday, December 5.
UCLA, the last unbeaten team in the conference
UCLA has not slipped once. In his first season in charge of the Bruins, Bob Chesney is eight-for-eight, including a 17-15 win at Oregon on October 10 and a 17-7 victory over Wisconsin a week later. The win in Eugene came at a price: quarterback Nico Iamaleava injured his knee there, and his season is over.
His replacement, Ty Dieffenbach, has taken over without the team wobbling. On Saturday at the Rose Bowl, he completed 16 of 30 passes for 178 yards against Nevada, and the defense forced four turnovers in a 27-0 win. The offense remains modest, but UCLA wins by controlling games, with a defense that smothers opponents and careful ball security.
What sets the Bruins apart is their schedule: they do not face Indiana or Ohio State in the regular season. They still have a trip to Minnesota, a home game against Illinois, a visit to Michigan and then the crosstown game against USC. If they win all four, they will stand alone at 9-0 in conference play and clinch a spot in the title game, whatever happens elsewhere. One loss would send them to the tiebreakers, with no head-to-head result against the other two favorites. Two losses would drop them into the scrum of 7-2 teams. That detail matters, because two of their last four opponents, Minnesota and Illinois, belong to that chasing pack and will be playing for their own survival.
Indiana ahead of Ohio State, but without the edge
Indiana sits one loss back, and that single loss is exactly what hurts: on October 17 in Bloomington, Ohio State won 19-15. In a two-team tie, head-to-head decides it. If the Buckeyes win their last four games, Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers will need UCLA to stumble, opening a three-way tiebreaker, to have a shot at Indianapolis.
The immediate concern is elsewhere, at quarterback. On Saturday against Minnesota, Josh Hoover did not return after halftime, having taken a hit on an interception. Grant Wilson came in and threw the decisive touchdown pass to Charlie Becker in overtime (23-16). The bye week comes at a good time, ahead of USC's visit on November 14, a trip to Washington and the home finale against Purdue.
Ohio State, for its part, has no margin left. In Los Angeles, without injured starting quarterback Julian Sayin, the Buckeyes turned to true freshman Luke Fahey for his first career start and lost 30-18. They still face Oregon on Saturday, then Northwestern in Columbus, a trip to Nebraska and Michigan at home. A second conference loss would move the Buckeyes into the group of teams that depend on others' results.
USC, beaten by Oregon and Wisconsin, no longer controls its destiny, but it holds the role of spoiler. Coming off its bye, it travels to Indiana on November 14, hosts Maryland and closes at the Rose Bowl against UCLA on November 28. With three wins, the Trojans would finish 7-2 and would have taken down two of the three leaders along the way, which might be enough to open the door for them.
Six two-loss teams in the shadows
The standings feature six more teams at 3-2 in conference play: Northwestern and Iowa (6-2 overall), Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin (5-3). None of them controls its own destiny. Their ceiling is a 7-2 record, and for that to be enough, at least two of the three leaders, UCLA, Indiana and Ohio State, would have to lose games by the end of November. They would then need to come out on top of a tiebreaker that could involve four or five teams.
These six teams have one thing going for them: several of them still play the leaders. Minnesota hosts UCLA on Saturday, Illinois visits the Bruins on November 13, Oregon goes to Columbus on Saturday and Northwestern follows there on November 14. For each of them, a win would work twice over: it would keep them alive and push a favorite back.
Their handicap is that they will also knock each other out. Iowa visits Northwestern on Saturday, then Illinois on November 21. Northwestern goes to Minnesota that same day before hosting Illinois on November 28. Minnesota closes the season at Wisconsin. At the end of this mini-tournament, there will likely be one or two teams left at 7-2, at most.
The games already played among them will weigh in the tiebreakers. Minnesota beat Iowa 13-10, Iowa routed Wisconsin 30-0, Oregon handled Northwestern 34-26 and Illinois beat Oregon in Champaign on October 24. Wisconsin, for its part, beat USC 24-7, a result that could matter if the Trojans end up in the same group of tied teams.
Their profiles differ. Iowa has two manageable home games, Purdue and Nebraska, but two tricky road trips to Northwestern and Illinois. Wisconsin faces Rutgers, Maryland and Purdue, three teams that already have at least three conference losses, before Minnesota: it is the lightest schedule in the group, but the 30-0 loss at Iowa exposed the limits of its offense. Illinois, coached by Bret Bielema, has the toughest path with Nebraska, UCLA, Iowa and Northwestern, and the best chance to do the sorting itself. Oregon, finally, travels to Ohio State before hosting Michigan and Washington: the Ducks can change the race in a single night.
Michigan, Washington, Nebraska and Purdue, at 2-3, can finish no better than 6-3. As we read it, their path to Indianapolis would require a simultaneous collapse of almost every team ahead of them, a scenario that belongs more to arithmetic than to football. They will still have a say: Michigan hosts UCLA, then visits Oregon and Ohio State, while Nebraska hosts Ohio State and closes at Iowa. Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland and Michigan State, with four or more losses, have no realistic chance left.
The schedule that will decide it
The Big Ten title comes with an automatic playoff berth, but the conference can hope for several teams among the twelve. The first College Football Playoff committee rankings, released on Tuesday, November 3, will show how the committee reads the résumés. UCLA's case, with no game against Indiana or Ohio State, will be one test of its method, as will USC's, a team that beat Ohio State but has two conference losses.
The weekend of November 7 could already thin the field. If UCLA and Ohio State win, Minnesota and Oregon will take a third loss, as will the loser of Iowa–Northwestern, and the race will tighten around four or five names. An upset in Minneapolis or Columbus would instead reopen the door for half a dozen teams.
Games to watch:
Saturday, November 7: Oregon at Ohio State, on CBS; UCLA at Minnesota, on FOX; Iowa at Northwestern; Nebraska at Illinois.
Friday, November 13: Illinois at UCLA, on FOX.
Saturday, November 14: USC at Indiana, on CBS; Northwestern at Ohio State, on FOX.
Saturday, November 21: Iowa at Illinois; Northwestern at Minnesota.
Saturday, November 28: USC at UCLA; Illinois at Northwestern.
Saturday, December 5: Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, on FOX.
